Pre-tourney Rankings
UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2016-17
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#67
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#49
Pace71.6#84
Improvement-1.3#241

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#23
First Shot+6.6#30
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#34
Layup/Dunks+1.3#119
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#26
Freethrows-1.0#235
Improvement+1.1#116

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#196
First Shot-1.4#214
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#120
Layups/Dunks-5.6#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#174
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#16
Freethrows-0.9#230
Improvement-2.4#291
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 12.0 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round18.9% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen4.3% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.7% n/a n/a
Final Four0.2% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 12 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2016 273   @ Eastern Kentucky W 78-69 OT 87%     1 - 0 +4.8 +4.1 +0.7
  Nov 20, 2016 69   East Tennessee St. W 68-59 60%     2 - 0 +14.4 +3.8 +11.2
  Nov 25, 2016 56   Middle Tennessee L 63-68 44%     2 - 1 +4.6 +1.1 +3.0
  Nov 26, 2016 154   Evansville W 65-62 76%     3 - 1 +3.6 -1.9 +5.7
  Nov 27, 2016 132   Toledo W 102-77 73%     4 - 1 +26.7 +26.4 -0.2
  Nov 30, 2016 160   @ Western Michigan W 97-92 69%     5 - 1 +7.8 +17.6 -10.1
  Dec 10, 2016 91   @ St. Bonaventure W 81-80 52%     6 - 1 +8.5 +12.5 -4.0
  Dec 14, 2016 287   @ Campbell W 96-75 89%     7 - 1 +15.6 +24.2 -7.6
  Dec 17, 2016 298   Radford W 100-64 95%     8 - 1 +24.7 +30.8 -3.6
  Dec 20, 2016 159   East Carolina W 81-71 83%     9 - 1 +7.9 +11.3 -3.5
  Dec 28, 2016 39   @ Clemson L 73-87 28%     9 - 2 +0.1 +4.2 -3.8
  Dec 31, 2016 119   @ Towson W 76-67 61%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +14.2 +2.6 +11.2
  Jan 02, 2017 141   Elon W 79-63 81%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +14.7 +13.4 +2.5
  Jan 05, 2017 258   @ Drexel W 90-72 85%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +14.9 +8.8 +5.0
  Jan 07, 2017 281   @ Delaware W 91-81 88%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +4.9 +24.0 -18.2
  Jan 12, 2017 142   William & Mary W 101-77 81%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +22.7 +20.1 +2.1
  Jan 14, 2017 187   Hofstra W 84-76 86%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +4.4 +10.3 -5.3
  Jan 19, 2017 93   @ College of Charleston W 65-59 52%     16 - 2 7 - 0 +13.4 -6.3 +19.4
  Jan 21, 2017 258   Drexel W 87-74 93%     17 - 2 8 - 0 +4.9 +8.3 -3.5
  Jan 26, 2017 218   @ James Madison W 87-76 80%     18 - 2 9 - 0 +10.0 +20.7 -10.2
  Jan 28, 2017 142   @ William & Mary L 78-96 66%     18 - 3 9 - 1 -14.3 -3.3 -9.8
  Feb 02, 2017 93   College of Charleston L 66-67 71%     18 - 4 9 - 2 +1.3 +1.5 -0.3
  Feb 04, 2017 281   Delaware W 108-80 94%     19 - 4 10 - 2 +17.9 +38.9 -18.9
  Feb 09, 2017 218   James Madison W 88-73 90%     20 - 4 11 - 2 +8.9 +11.9 -3.4
  Feb 11, 2017 141   @ Elon L 76-77 66%     20 - 5 11 - 3 +2.8 +6.8 -4.1
  Feb 16, 2017 168   @ Northeastern W 66-65 70%     21 - 5 12 - 3 +3.5 -1.7 +5.3
  Feb 18, 2017 187   @ Hofstra W 83-76 73%     22 - 5 13 - 3 +8.5 +8.9 -0.2
  Feb 23, 2017 119   Towson W 83-78 77%     23 - 5 14 - 3 +5.1 +16.7 -11.3
  Feb 25, 2017 168   Northeastern W 74-65 84%     24 - 5 15 - 3 +6.4 -3.0 +9.2
  Mar 04, 2017 281   Delaware W 91-82 92%     25 - 5 +1.4 +22.1 -20.0
  Mar 05, 2017 142   William & Mary W 105-94 74%     26 - 5 +12.2 +22.9 -11.2
  Mar 06, 2017 93   College of Charleston W 78-69 62%     27 - 5 +13.9 +16.0 -1.4
Projected Record 27.0 - 5.0 15.0 - 3.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 12.0 0.0 0.2 6.3 87.6 5.9 0.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.2 6.3 87.6 5.9 0.0